Introduction to Foresight
Foresight is a method of preparing today to anticipate the future in the short, medium and possibly long term. It does not involve defining exactly what the future will be, but rather imagining possible and impossible scenarios based on what we know today.
Our expertise
Trained at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, we learned about foresight from three particularly inspiring people:
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Philippe Durance, doctor and director of the Foresight chair at the CNAM
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Stéphane Giron, trainer and Chairman of Futuring Lab.
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Régine Monti, associate researcher
All three are members of GERPA
Foresight at the service of fair trade
We carried out a prospective study for Artisans du Monde on the Future of Fair Trade in 2030. To support this process, a steering committee "Prospective 2030 - Fair Trade Future" was set up within the Artisans du Monde Federation. This approach was based on numerous books, reports and studies by the leading futurists of our time, international institutions, government bodies, studies, essays and magazines, and we held a day of workshops attended by over a hundred people in Montreuil (France).
Stages of the forward-looking approach
1
Analysis and preparation phase
Analysis and definition of key issues
In the first phase, we analyse the organisation, look for information on the subject (monitoring and research) and define one or more central questions. For Artisans du Monde, this was the question of the future of their network up to 2030. Generally, we also set up a steering committee.
2
Data collection phase
Group interviews and workshops
In the second phase, we develop key variables (detailed list below), conduct group and individual interviews with people in the network, and then set up several foresight workshops.
A workshop was held for Artisans du Monde, attended by around a hundred people.
3
Recommendations phase
Report writing and presentation
In this phase, we analyse the raw data from the workshops and interviews (often hundreds of pages long).
We compare them with existing data on certain topics in order to refine the answers. We produce a number of documents for the steering committee and then draw up a strategic foresight white paper to provide a concrete vision of the future.
Key variables in the Prospective study
1/ Digital transformation
We analysed the impact of the digital revolution, social networking and online sales on the network.
2/Social organisation
We studied new statuses (e.g. cooperatives), new forms of voluntary work, and began to reflect on the world of work and its transformation to better understand the future.
3/ Education
Transformations in education at all levels (national, popular, European, global) and the consequences for Artisans du Monde
4/ Consumption and distribution (retailing)
What are the new responsible consumption habits? How will distribution evolve? These are just some of the issues that need to be addressed to understand what could change for a network of fair trade shops.
5/ Producers and sourcing
In a world on edge, how are farmers and the world of agriculture going to have to reinvent themselves? How will this require our support, and how can we prepare for these changes? Will the increasing scarcity of raw materials have an impact on the Artisans du Monde network? These are all important questions that need to be analysed.
6/ Worldwilde Ecology
Fair trade means ecology, the rights of minorities and geopolitics. How can we integrate these emerging issues into Artisans du Monde's strategy? How can we position ourselves and adapt our advocacy to promote Human Rights even more? How do we deal with global conflicts? The migration crisis? Finally, how can we make the Artisans du Monde network an example in terms of compliance with sustainable development objectives?
Click on the image to read extracts from the report (FR)
Gérald Godreuil Director- Fédération Artisans du Monde
"Didier is a curious, enthusiastic person with a real flair for people. He is passionate about fair trade. He uses his pen and images to promote human rights.
He has worked with the Artisans du Monde movement on a forward-looking project, bringing together several generations of AdM activists to explore the possibilities and produce a white paper."
Daniel Beauchêne, (ex) Co-Président of the Fédération Artisans du Monde
"Didier's work on a forward-looking vision of the Artisans du Monde movement as a whole (local associations, the Federation, central purchasing bodies, civil society) helped us to better understand who we are and where we want to go! I really enjoyed working with Didier for both his professional and human qualities (attention to others, listening, etc.)."
Grégoire Osoha - ex head of communication - Fédération Artisans du Monde
"I recommend Didier for his qualities in relation to foresight. His ability to come up with innovative ideas is very important. I would also recommend Didier for his keen sense of ethics."